Pigs didn’t fly but swine flu: the mathematics of epidemics
Speaker: Ken Eames and Ellen Brooks-Pollock (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)http://www.ima.org.uk/viewItem.cfm?cit_id=384146
7:30 pm, Lecture Theatre 2, Ken Edwards Building (TBC)
University of Leicester
Sponsored by: IMA
Over the past few years, mathematicians have found themselves on the front line in the fight against epidemics. Mathematical models are frequently called upon by policy makers to answer questions about the likely scale of outbreaks and to help guide control efforts. How does a mathematician go about developing a model that will provide reliable answers to important (and often urgent) policy questions? In this talk we will discuss some modelling techniques used to understand and quantify infectious disease spread. Approaches range from simple, analytically solvable models to complex individual-based simulations, but in all cases is it essential to identify the processes that drive the epidemic.
We will talk about modelling efforts that took place during the 2009 swine flu pandemic and how modelling contributes to the ‘badger versus cattle’ bovine TB debate.