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Using Milankovitch Cycles to create high-resolution astrochronologies

November 30, 2020

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AIM/MCRN Summer School: Week 6

August 2, 2020

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Professor Christopher K.R.T. Jones — Recipient of the 2020 MPE Prize


Professor Chris Jones is the Bill Guthridge Distinguished Professor in Mathematics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Director of the Mathematics and Climate Research Network (MCRN). The 2020 MPE Prize recognizes Professor Jones for his many significant contributions to climate science and the mathematics of planet Earth.

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AIM/MCRN Summer School, June 22-July 31, 2020 — Day 4

General

Today we heard from experts (morning) and practitioners (afternoon).  The experts were Codilia McGehee (MD/PhD, U Minnesota), Jack O’Brian (biomath, stat, Bowdoin College), Pauline van den Driessche (math epidemiology, U Victoria), Jianhong Wu (math epidemiology, York U). The practitioners were Andrew Roberts and Nick Ma (health care IT, Cerner).

What are the important questions?

We heard many suggestions. Here are a few (in no particular order).

  • Be aware of the different ways clinical trial data are reported.
  • How can we capture resilience, for example of an infrastructure, in a mathematical model, and what type of data do we need to assess resilience?
  • Can we model the influence of human activities (e.g., land use changes) on the spread of zoonotic diseases?
  • There seems to be a one-week cycle in daily infection rates; is there a possible correlation with weekend sociability (stochastic forcing)?
  • Develop granular (meta)population models for specific communities: long-term care facilities, homeless people, prison population, etc.
  • Introduce spatial variation, group differences, and delays in ODE models.
  • Design and evaluate strategies for de-escalation: social distancing, re-opening the economy, stratified lockdown, school reopening. 
  • What have we learned? Epidemics will continue to occur. Develop strategies for avoiding future epidemics.
  • Design data collection schemes for global monitoring of infectious diseases (citizen science?).  Use livestock for pilot project.
  • Study the effect of multiple simultaneous epidemics, co-infection models.
  • Investigate scenarios for the timing of recovery transitions for long-term care facilities, separate from general population.
  • Different diseases may have shared symptoms. How do we distinguish?

Covid forecasting with Cerner Intelligence

  • Curve fitting, informed by SIR models, limited success.
  • IHME model, granularity down to state level.
  • SIR, SEIR models, parameter estimation, role of \beta, uncertainty.
  • HospitalIQ, based on curve fitting.
  • Penn Medical CHIME, SIR model, individual hospital data.
  • Qventus538.

General approach

  • Follow medical rule: stabilize, followed by triage, followed by treatment.
  • Economics: uncertainty of new Medicaid enrollments next year.
  • Reopening Risk Index (low, medium, high, very high), determined from daily case count at local level.
  • Upscaling from death rate, downscaling from daily case rate.

Homework

Try another simulator from the shared spreadsheet.

This entry was posted in General by Hans Kaper. Bookmark the permalink.

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